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(Do X…) to organise and manage an orderly and just decline of the automotive industry [Public Policy Proposal stub] Open to a working group

Submitted by Sergio Arbarviro the 16/7/2017 16:14
The automotive industry has an enormous importance in terms of (1) environmental impact, (2) contribution to mobility and (3) economic value added and employment. Automotive use and production should decline over the next century - but this decline must be managed responsibly.
Political domain, Work - Employment, Ecology - Sustainable Development, Industry, Land use planning & Geographic cohesiveness
Inactive Working group with 2 members

This is only the stub of a Public Policy Proposal, in which only the issue is exposed, and a justification of why it is important. The solution to address this issue, i.e. the public policy itself, remains fully to be designed and discussed.

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What is the problem / the issue?

The automobile is one of the main components of the unsustainable "Western" lifestyle. It has structured the urban planning of our cities, and is responsible for 12 to 28% of the total environmental impacts of human activities (depending on the nature of the impact: climate change, eutrophication, acidification…) in a developed area such as the European Union1. As such, automobile manufacturing and use is consistently among the top 3 sources of environmental impact (whatever the nature of the impact), together with food and housing. This means that the reduction in Greenhouse Gases Emissions by 80 to 95% compared to 1990 levels in the EU is only possible by achieving a very sharp decline in the automotive usage – and production.

On the other hand, passenger cars account for 83.4% of all of inland passenger transport in the EU-28 in 2014, expressed in passenger-km2, and the automotive industry employs 12 M people in the EU alone, and represents 4% of the region's GDP3. When compared to manufacturing alone, the automotive sector represents 8.5% of the value added of manufacturing in the EU, and 6.5% of manufacturing jobs, with some Member States where this share is much higher, e.g. 15% of industrial value added in Germany, or 14% in the Czech Republic and 12.5% in Slovakia. The industry is actually even more concentrated geographically, with some regions, such as that of Braunschweig or Stuttgart in Germany, where it accounts for 13 and 11% of all jobs respectively (not only those in manufacturing), or that of Stredni Cechy around Prague (8% of all employment)4.

This decline in the automotive usage and production is thus both very important to achieve essential sustainability goals – and extremely difficult to achieve, both socially and economically. It is thus necessary to anticipate, to organise and to manage this decline in an orderly and just way, in order to take into account (1) the needs of climate and other environmental sustainability goals, (2) the mobility needs of current car users, and (3) the economic and social needs of the workers in this industry – and of the regional communities where they are concentrated.

1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 2006, "Environmental Impact of Products (EIPRO)", accessible at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ipp/pdf/eipro_report.pdf

4AlphaMetrics - Groupe Alpha, 2008 "Employment, Skills and occupational trends in the automotive industry", http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=3049&langId=en

Why is the problem / the issue important?

The issue of organising the decline of the automotive industry exists because it is quantitatively important, in terms of (1) environmental impact, (2) contribution to mobility and (3) economic value added and employment.

What are the existing Public Policies on the issue?

Please explain what public policies have already been undertaken to address this issue / to solve the problem / to reach the goal. Please specify when these policies were undertaken, and by what public authority. Please indicate what effect (or absence of effect) these policies had, and what you know of the reasons for their success or failure.

The Public Policy = what should the public body do?

Please explain the Public Policy aiming at addressing the issue, solving the problem or reaching the desirable state. A Public Policy is an action by a public body. It typically takes the following form: regulation, taxation, public expenses, or any combination thereof.

Why is the Public Policy in line with the Manifesto of the Cosmopolitical Party in the European Union?

Please explain how this Public Policy complies with the "political objectives" and the "guiding rules for action" that underpin the activities of the Cosmopolitical Party. Please specify those general goals of the Manifesto that are supported by the Public Proposal, and how. Please specify also, if they exist, the general goals of the Manifesto that the Public Policy does not aim at. Please explain why you chose not to pursue them in this specific case, the trade-offs that you made, and why you made them.

Why will the Public Policy work?

Please explain why the Public Policy Proposal will be effective in effectively addressing the issue / solving the problem / reaching the desirable state. Please explain also why the effect of the Public Policy is superior to potential unwanted phenomena in the opposite direction.

What are the other positive effects of the Public Policy? What other opportunities does it open?

Please explain other positive effects (= in direction of the common good or of specific interests) of the Public Policy Proposal that you anticipate, in addition of addressing the issue / solving the problem, / helping to reach the desirable state. Please explain if the Public Policy opens new, unexpected opportunities for the common good, beyond its immediate purpose. Please justify.

What are the negative effects of the Public Policy?

Please explain the negative effects that you anticipate, but that you accept, of the Public Policy, for the common good or for specific social groups. Please explain if you will compensate for these negative effects, and if so, how.

What are the risks and uncertainties attached to the Public Policy?

Please estimate the nature and the size of uncertainties regarding the consequences of the Public Policy Proposal.

Quantitatively, what consequences will the Public Policy have?

Please estimate quantitatively the concrete effects of the Public Policy (using an appropriate metric, e.g. educational achievements on the PISA scoreboard). You can use a collaborative spreadsheet such as the one freely provided by the Framacalc service.

Why did you make these choices?

Please explain why you propose this Public Policy rather than other options, why you consider the budget incomes and anticipated positive effects (problem solving + others) as superior to negative effects and budget costs, why the public body should act now rather than wait to collect more information or than let the situation follow its spontaneous course

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